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I like confrontations and situational handicap. This includes things like strengths versus weaknesses, bad lines, homecomings, and revenge points. I’m not big into betting trends. Trends can be dangerous. Some novice sports bettors think, “This team has lost 3 games in a row against the number, that means they are more likely to cover this game.” Well, you better have more reasons on your side to support a team than just something like that.
For example, Fresno State entered the Hawaii game two weeks ago as the house dog. Fresno hadn’t covered since the end of last season. Anyone watching the trends might think that Fresno MUST cover this game because they are due for coverage. Well, that kind of simplistic thinking just isn’t enough in the competitive world of sports handicapping.
For the record, Fresno was bombed again, 68-37 as a +3 home dog. It took them to 0-6 ATS this season. Alright, so maybe the next game will be covered, right? Now they are REALLY due! Well, the due factor is still going strong as Fresno failed to cover again, this time as a +31 dog at La Tech, a 38-6 loss. OK, so they’re getting closer, but try saying that to the man at the betting window while you’re waving a losing ticket in his face. It’s not going to cut it!
I would suggest focusing more on matches and things like home/road play and current play, rather than looking at a trend. For example, on Sunday in the NFL, I played the visiting Atlanta Falcons in Cincinnati. In my analysis, I noted, “This game comes down to who reigns in the trenches. Atlanta owns a league leading 6.1 yards per carry, while second place is at 5.2 with the Eagles. Simply to say that the Falcons throw the ball at everyone.
They’ve exceeded 220 rushing yards in 4 of 6 games. Cincinnati, on the other hand, is allowing 4.6 yards per carry, well above the league average of 4.0. Therefore, I expect the Falcons to run the clock and get the ball rolling. We think Cincinnati has an explosive offense, but this year it doesn’t. The Bengals are averaging 5.1 yards per game, which works out to a league-wide 5.1 ypp average. Atlanta is coming in at 5.5 yards per play on offense.
The Bengals have really had a tough time offensively lately. In the last three games, they scored 17, 13 and 13 points. What makes those numbers even weirder is that Carson Palmer hasn’t been picked in any of the last three games. In fact, they only have two total turnovers in these games. So it’s not as if errors prevent them from entering the end zone. “Atlanta has the personnel to cause problems for the Bengal offense, and they should have a big day directing the football.” Cincy not only covered but won the match.
Do you see what I was looking at? First, see what I wasn’t looking at: no trends! Second, I looked at how the Bengals have been playing lately, the on-field lag that favored the visitors, and the public perception that Cincy is an explosive offense. For me, cold, hard facts are more important than any betting trend or the “lag factor”.
This is the catch for trend bettors: WHEN will this trend occur? It’s impossible to tell based on the lagging trend factor alone. Successful sports handicapping encompasses many factors. It’s much wiser to look at as many factors as possible, such as terrain, weather, playing surface, training, strength vs. weakness, and revenge points. Winning ATS is all about sifting through all the pieces and finding multiple edges in a game, not just one angle.
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